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Jerome Roos, “We Don’t Know What Will Happen Next”

in: The New York Times, 18 April 2023

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/18/opinion/global-crisis-future.html?searchResultPosition=7 (accessed 25 October 2023)

text type: newspaper article

Assignments

1.

Outline the information on the challenges that humankind is confronted with.

20 %

2.

Analyse how the author presents the two narratives on the future of humankind and his own vision for the future. Focus on communicative strategies and use of language.

40 %

3.

Choose one of the following tasks:

3.1

The author claims that “the solutions we pursue today […] will one day come to form the basis for a new world order.” (ll. 71-72)

Taking the author’s view as a starting point, assess the impact international cooperation has on future global developments.

3.2

As a participant at the “Global Youth Climate Summit”, you have been invited to react to this year’s motto, a statement by Wangari Maathai1:

“When we plant trees, we plant the seeds of peace and seeds of hope”.

Write an entry for the official blog of the summit commenting on Maathai’s statement.

1 Wangari Maathai (1940-2011) – environmentalist and first African woman to win the Nobel Peace Prize; founder of the Green Belt Movement, by which more than 50 million trees have been planted

40 %

“We Don’t Know What Will Happen Next”

by Jerome Roos

1
“There are tranquil ages, which seem to contain that which will last forever,” the
2
philosopher Karl Jaspers once wrote. “And there are ages of change, which see
3
upheavals that, in extreme instances, appear to go to the roots of humanity itself.”

4
Ours is clearly an age of upheaval. As war rages in Europe and the world counts the
5
cost of the deadliest pandemic in living memory, an ominous mood reigns over the
6
earth. After years of economic turmoil, social unrest and political instability, there is a
7
widespread sense that the world has been cast adrift – like a rudderless ship in a terrible
8
storm.

9
For good reason. Humanity now faces a confluence of challenges unlike any other in its
10
history. Climate change is rapidly altering the conditions of life on our planet. Tensions
11
over Ukraine and Taiwan have revived the specter of a conflict between nuclear
12
superpowers. And breakneck developments in artificial intelligence are raising serious
13
concerns about the risk of an A.I.-induced global catastrophe.

14
This troubling situation calls for new perspectives to make sense of a rapidly changing
15
world and work out where we might be headed. Instead, we are presented with two
16
familiar but very different visions of the future: a doomsday narrative, which sees
17
apocalypse everywhere, and a progress narrative, which maintains that this is the best
18
of all possible worlds. Both views are equally forceful in their claims – and equally
19
misleading in their analysis. The truth is that none of us can really know where things
20
are headed. The crisis of our times has blown the future right open.

21
The doomsayers would probably beg to differ. In their perspective, humanity now
22
stands on the eve of cataclysmic changes that will inevitably culminate in the collapse
23
of modern civilization and the end of the world as we know it. It is a view reflected in
24
the growing number of doomsday preppers1, billionaire bunkers and post-apocalyptic
25
television series. While it may be tempting to dismiss such cultural phenomena as
26
fundamentally unserious, they capture an important aspect of the zeitgeist, revealing
27
deep-seated anxieties about the fragility of the existing order.

28
Today these fears can no longer be confined to a fanatical fringe of gun-toting
29
survivalists. The relentless onslaught of earthshaking crises, unfolding against the
30
backdrop of flash floods and forest fires, has steadily pushed apocalyptic sentiment into
31
the mainstream. When even the head of the United Nations warns that rising sea levels
32
could unleash “a mass exodus on a biblical scale,” it is hard to remain sanguine about
33
the state of the world. One survey found that over half of young adults now believe that
34
“humanity is doomed” and “the future is frightening.”

35
At the same time, recent years have also seen the resurgence of a very different kind
36
of narrative. Exemplified by a slew of best-selling books and viral TED talks2, this view
37
tends to downplay the challenges we face and instead insists on the inexorable march
38
of human progress. If doomsday thinkers worry endlessly that things are about to get
39
a lot worse, the prophets of progress maintain that things have only been getting better
40
– and are likely to continue to do so in the future.

41
The Panglossian3 scenario painted by these new optimists naturally appeals to defenders
42
of the status quo. If things are really getting better, there is clearly no need for
43
transformative change to confront the most pressing problems of our time. So long as
44
we stick to the script and keep our faith in the redeeming qualities of human ingenuity
45
and technological innovation, all our problems will eventually resolve themselves.

46
These two visions, at face value, appear to be diametrically opposed. But they are really
47
two sides of the same coin. Both perspectives emphasize one set of trends over another.
48
The optimists, for one, often point to misleading statistics on poverty reduction as
49
evidence that the world is becoming a better place. The pessimists, by contrast, tend
50
to take the worst-case scenarios of climate breakdown or financial collapse and present
51
these real possibilities as unavoidable facts. […]

52
We are ourselves in the midst of a painful transition, a sort of interregnum, as the Italian
53
political theorist Antonio Gramsci famously called it, between an old world that is dying
54
and a new one that is struggling to be born. Such epochal shifts are inevitably fraught
55
with danger. Yet for all their destructive potential, they are also full of possibility. As
56
the 19th-century historian Jacob Burckhardt once noted, the great upheavals in world
57
history can equally be seen “as genuine signs of vitality” that “clear the ground” of
58
discredited ideas and decaying institutions. “The crisis,” he wrote, “is to be regarded as
59
a new nexus of growth.”

60
Once we embrace this Janus-faced4 nature of our times, at once frightening yet
61
generative, a very different vision of the future emerges. No longer do we conceive of
62
history as a straight line tending either up toward gradual improvement or down toward
63
an inevitable collapse. Rather, we see phases of relative calm punctuated every so often
64
by periods of great upheaval. These crises can be devastating, but they are also the
65
drivers of history. Progress and catastrophe, those binary opposites, are really joined
66
at the hip. Together, they engage in an endless dance of creative destruction, forever
67
breaking new ground and spiraling out into the unknown.

68
Our age of upheaval may well result in some global catastrophe or even the collapse of
69
modern civilization — but it may also open up possibilities for transformative change.
70
[…]

71
The solutions we pursue today – on global peace, the clean energy transition and the
72
regulation of A.I. – will one day come to form the basis for a new world order. It is
73
impossible to predict where these developments will lead, of course. All we know is that
74
our civilizational rite of passage opens a door to the future. It is up to us to walk right
75
through.

1doomsday preppers – individuals or groups anticipating imminent war or disaster, acquiring skills and supplies to prepare

2TED talks – presentations given at TED conferences, sharing innovative ideas in e.g. art, science, and business

3Panglossian – (from Greek panglossía), characterized by extreme optimism especially in the face of hardship

4Janus-faced – here: having two strongly contrasting aspects or characteristics

Jerome Roos, “We Don’t Know What Will Happen Next”, The New York Times, 18 April 2023; 983 words

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