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Jerome Roos, “We Don’t Know What Will Happen Next”
in: The New York Times, 18 April 2023
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/18/opinion/global-crisis-future.html?searchResultPosition=7 (accessed 25 October 2023)
text type: newspaper article
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1.
Outline the information on the challenges that humankind is confronted with. |
20 % |
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2.
Analyse how the author presents the two narratives on the future of humankind and his own vision for the future. Focus on communicative strategies and use of language. |
40 % |
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3.
Choose one of the following tasks:
3.1
The author claims that “the solutions we pursue today […] will one day come to form the basis for a new world order.” (ll. 71-72) Taking the author’s view as a starting point, assess the impact international cooperation has on future global developments.
3.2
As a participant at the “Global Youth Climate Summit”, you have been invited to react to this year’s motto, a statement by Wangari Maathai1: “When we plant trees, we plant the seeds of peace and seeds of hope”. Write an entry for the official blog of the summit commenting on Maathai’s statement. 1 Wangari Maathai (1940-2011) – environmentalist and first African woman to win the Nobel Peace Prize; founder of the Green Belt Movement, by which more than 50 million trees have been planted |
40 % |
“We Don’t Know What Will Happen Next”
by Jerome Roos
1doomsday preppers – individuals or groups anticipating imminent war or disaster, acquiring skills and supplies to prepare
2TED talks – presentations given at TED conferences, sharing innovative ideas in e.g. art, science, and business
3Panglossian – (from Greek panglossía), characterized by extreme optimism especially in the face of hardship
4Janus-faced – here: having two strongly contrasting aspects or characteristics
Jerome Roos, “We Don’t Know What Will Happen Next”, The New York Times, 18 April 2023; 983 words
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According to Jerome Roos, humanity is currently facing an unprecedented number of interconnected global challenges. The author describes the present as an "age of upheaval" characterised by uncertainty and instability.
One major challenge is armed conflict and geopolitical tensions. Roos refers to the war in Europe and warns that increasing tensions surrounding Ukraine and Taiwan have revived fears of a conflict between nuclear powers. These developments threaten global peace and international security.
Another serious issue is the climate crisis. Climate change is already transforming living conditions on Earth, while extreme weather events such as floods and forest fires illustrate its growing impact. Rising sea levels may also force millions of people to leave their homes in the future.
The author also highlights the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has claimed millions of lives and further intensified economic and social instability. Combined with years of economic crises and political unrest, the pandemic has contributed to a widespread feeling that the world is becoming increasingly unstable.
Furthermore, Roos identifies the rapid development of artificial intelligence as another major challenge. While AI offers many opportunities, it also raises concerns about potential global catastrophes if the technology is not carefully regulated.
These crises have led to growing anxiety within society. Many people fear that modern civilisation may collapse, while younger generations increasingly express pessimism about the future. At the same time, others continue to believe that technological progress will solve humanity's problems.
Overall, Roos argues that humankind is confronted with several interconnected global crises that create uncertainty about the future and require new ways of thinking as well as responsible political action.
Jerome Roos presents three different perspectives on the future of humankind. He first introduces two opposing narratives – the pessimistic "doomsday narrative" and the optimistic "progress narrative" – before rejecting both as overly simplistic and developing his own balanced vision. Through contrasts, metaphors, historical references and inclusive language, he persuades readers to adopt a more nuanced understanding of the future.
At the beginning of the article, Roos creates a sense of urgency by portraying the present as a period of exceptional uncertainty. Referring to Karl Jaspers' distinction between "tranquil ages" and "ages of change" (ll. 1–3), he immediately places today's world in the latter category. This historical reference lends authority to his argument and prepares readers for his central claim that humanity is experiencing an extraordinary period of upheaval. The metaphor of the world being "cast adrift – like a rudderless ship in a terrible storm" (ll. 6–8) vividly conveys feelings of insecurity and loss of direction, encouraging readers to identify with the widespread uncertainty he describes.
Roos then introduces the doomsday narrative, which presents the future as inevitably catastrophic. He summarises this perspective by claiming that humanity stands "on the eve of cataclysmic changes" that will lead to "the collapse of modern civilization and the end of the world as we know it" (ll. 21–23). The emotionally charged expressions "cataclysmic", "collapse" and "end of the world" emphasise fear and hopelessness. By referring to "doomsday preppers, billionaire bunkers and post-apocalyptic television series" (ll. 24–26), he uses concrete examples from popular culture to illustrate how deeply apocalyptic thinking has entered public consciousness. At the same time, he distances himself slightly from this narrative by describing these phenomena as potentially "unserious" before acknowledging that they nevertheless reflect genuine public anxieties (ll. 25–27). This balanced presentation increases his credibility because he neither dismisses nor fully endorses pessimistic views.
To demonstrate how widespread these fears have become, Roos appeals to authority and statistics. He quotes the Secretary-General of the United Nations warning that rising sea levels could trigger "a mass exodus on a biblical scale" (ll. 31–32), while also citing a survey showing that "over half of young adults" believe "humanity is doomed" and "the future is frightening" (ll. 33–34). These references combine emotional impact with factual evidence, strengthening his description of growing societal anxiety.
In contrast, Roos presents the progress narrative as an equally one-sided interpretation of reality. He explains that its supporters emphasise "the inexorable march of human progress" (ll. 35–40) and believe that conditions have continuously improved and will continue to do so. The adjective "inexorable" suggests an unstoppable process, highlighting the excessive confidence of this position. Roos further undermines this perspective by describing its representatives as "the prophets of progress" (ll. 38–40). This metaphor has ironic connotations because prophets rely on belief rather than evidence, implying that excessive optimism can become almost religious.
His criticism becomes even clearer when he characterises this optimistic worldview as "Panglossian" (l. 41), an allusion to Voltaire's Candide and its unrealistic optimism. According to Roos, this perspective mainly appeals to "defenders of the status quo" (ll. 41–42), since it suggests that there is "no need for transformative change" (ll. 42–43). The phrase "stick to the script" (l. 44) further implies passive conformity instead of active problem-solving. Through this ironic language, Roos exposes the dangers of relying solely on technological innovation and human ingenuity without addressing structural global problems.
Having presented both positions, the author deliberately rejects them. Using the metaphor that they are "two sides of the same coin" (ll. 46–47), he argues that both narratives distort reality because they selectively focus on evidence supporting their own conclusions. While optimists rely on "misleading statistics" (ll. 48–49), pessimists present "worst-case scenarios" as "unavoidable facts" (ll. 49–51). This parallel structure underlines that both perspectives simplify a much more complex reality and therefore fail to provide convincing answers.
Instead, Roos develops his own, more balanced vision of the future. Drawing on Antonio Gramsci, he describes the present as an "interregnum" between "an old world that is dying and a new one that is struggling to be born" (ll. 52–54). This metaphor presents the current period as a transitional phase rather than a final destination. Importantly, he combines danger with hope, arguing that upheavals are "full of possibility" (l. 55). By quoting the historian Jacob Burckhardt, who describes crises as "a new nexus of growth" (ll. 56–59), Roos reinforces his argument through another historical authority and reframes crises as opportunities for renewal.
The central image of his argument appears when he describes the present as "Janus-faced" (l. 60). The allusion to the Roman god with two faces symbolises the dual nature of crises: they are "frightening yet generative" (ll. 60–61). This concise antithesis captures the complexity of his overall message. Instead of viewing history as moving inevitably towards either progress or catastrophe, Roos argues that periods of stability are repeatedly interrupted by crises that become "the drivers of history" (ll. 63–66). The metaphor of progress and catastrophe engaging in "an endless dance of creative destruction" (ll. 65–67) vividly illustrates that both forces are inseparable and together create historical change.
Finally, Roos ends on a cautiously optimistic note. While acknowledging that today's crises "may well result in some global catastrophe", he immediately balances this by stating that they "may also open up possibilities for transformative change" (ll. 68–69). This parallel sentence structure reflects the uncertainty that defines his entire argument. In the concluding paragraph, the repeated use of the inclusive pronouns "we" and "our" (ll. 71–75) directly involves readers and emphasises shared responsibility. The final metaphor that humanity's current crisis "opens a door to the future" and that "it is up to us to walk right through" (ll. 74–75) leaves readers with a sense of agency rather than fear.
Overall, Roos presents both the pessimistic and optimistic narratives as inadequate because they reduce a highly complex reality to simple predictions. Through vivid metaphors, historical allusions, carefully balanced contrasts and inclusive language, he encourages readers to embrace uncertainty and to view the current global crises not only as threats but also as opportunities for shaping a better future.
Jerome Roos argues that the decisions humanity makes today will shape the future world order. His statement highlights the importance of international cooperation in addressing global challenges that no country can solve on its own. Although cooperation is often difficult to achieve, it is likely to have a decisive impact on future global developments.
One major advantage of international cooperation is that many of today's problems are global by nature. Climate change, pandemics, migration and cybercrime do not stop at national borders. Consequently, isolated national policies are often insufficient. The Paris Climate Agreement, for example, demonstrates that only coordinated international efforts can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While the agreement has not solved the climate crisis, it has established common goals and encouraged countries to take responsibility.
Another area where international cooperation is indispensable is global security. Ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, show how regional wars can have worldwide consequences, including rising energy prices, food shortages and refugee movements. International organisations such as the United Nations and military alliances such as NATO play an important role in preventing conflicts from escalating and in maintaining international stability. Although these institutions are not perfect, they provide platforms for dialogue that reduce the risk of direct confrontation between major powers.
Furthermore, scientific and technological progress benefits greatly from international collaboration. During the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers from different countries shared data and worked together to develop vaccines in record time. Similar cooperation will be essential in regulating artificial intelligence. Since AI technologies are developing rapidly across the globe, common ethical standards and international regulations are necessary to minimise risks while allowing innovation to continue.
However, international cooperation also faces significant obstacles. National interests often conflict with global goals. Governments may prioritise economic growth, political influence or national security over international agreements. In addition, geopolitical rivalries between major powers such as the United States and China make cooperation increasingly difficult. As trust declines, countries may become less willing to compromise, slowing down collective action.
Another challenge is that international agreements are only effective if countries actually implement them. Climate summits often produce ambitious declarations, but many governments fail to meet their commitments. This gap between promises and action can weaken public confidence in international institutions.
Nevertheless, despite these difficulties, cooperation remains the most promising way to address global crises. History has shown that international partnerships have contributed to peace, scientific progress and economic development. In an increasingly interconnected world, isolation is rarely an effective solution.
In conclusion, international cooperation will strongly influence future global developments because today's challenges require collective action. While political conflicts and competing national interests may limit its effectiveness, cooperation remains essential for tackling climate change, maintaining peace and regulating new technologies. As Roos suggests, the choices made today will shape tomorrow's world, making international dialogue and shared responsibility more important than ever.
Planting More Than Trees: Growing Peace and Hope Together
Have you ever planted a tree?
At first glance, it may seem like a small and ordinary action. Yet Wangari Maathai's famous statement, "When we plant trees, we plant the seeds of peace and seeds of hope," reminds us that even the simplest actions can have a lasting impact on both people and the planet.
Trees do much more than provide oxygen or absorb carbon dioxide. They protect biodiversity, improve air quality and reduce the effects of climate change. In many regions of the world, forests also prevent soil erosion, provide food and create economic opportunities for local communities. Planting trees is therefore not only an environmental action but also an investment in people's future.
However, Maathai's quote goes far beyond environmental protection. The "seeds of peace" symbolise cooperation. Climate change affects every country, regardless of borders, cultures or political systems. When people work together to restore forests, protect ecosystems or develop sustainable solutions, they build trust and strengthen communities. Shared environmental projects can unite people who might otherwise be divided by conflict or political differences.
The "seeds of hope" are equally important. Climate change can often feel overwhelming. Rising temperatures, extreme weather events and biodiversity loss make many young people anxious about the future. Yet hope grows when individuals realise that their actions matter. Every tree planted, every piece of plastic recycled and every sustainable decision contributes to positive change. Small actions alone will not solve the climate crisis, but millions of small actions together certainly can.
Of course, planting trees is not enough by itself. Governments, businesses and international organisations must also take responsibility by reducing emissions, investing in renewable energy and protecting natural ecosystems. Nevertheless, individual engagement remains essential because political change often begins with public pressure and local initiatives.
As young people, we are the generation that will experience the long-term consequences of today's decisions. This gives us both a challenge and an opportunity. Instead of feeling powerless, we can become part of the solution by supporting environmental organisations, raising awareness in our communities and encouraging others to act.
Wangari Maathai's words remind us that hope is not something we simply wait for—it is something we create through our actions. Every tree we plant represents confidence in the future and belief that positive change is possible.
What do you think? Does planting trees really help create peace and hope, or are other actions even more important? Share your thoughts in the comments below! I'd love to hear your ideas and learn how you think young people can make a difference.